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Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Rochester MN
National Weather Service Forecast for: Rochester MN
Issued by: National Weather Service La Crosse
Updated: 4:29 pm CDT Jul 25, 2025
 
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Cloudy

Saturday

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 3 to 6 mph.
Partly Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Clear

Sunday

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 99. South wind 3 to 7 mph.
Mostly Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind around 6 mph.  New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms

Monday

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 91. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Sunny

Monday
Night
Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm  in the evening.
Mostly Clear
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Tuesday

Tuesday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Northeast wind around 6 mph.
Chance
T-storms

Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Lo 66 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 90 °F Lo 73 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 82 °F Lo 63 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Tonight
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 3 to 6 mph.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 69. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Sunday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Heat index values as high as 99. South wind 3 to 7 mph.
Sunday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind around 6 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 91. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Monday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Tuesday
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Northeast wind around 6 mph.
Tuesday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Wednesday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Northeast wind around 7 mph.
Wednesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 57. Northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Friday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Rochester MN.

Weather Forecast Discussion
855
FXUS63 KARX 251826
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
125 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A smattering of weekend storm chances - but the higher
confidence/probabilities lie with Sunday night.

- Hot Sunday-Monday. Heat indices could top 100 degrees. Heat
Advisories possible for portions of the area.

- Cooling down for a few days next week (highs in the 70s for most).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

> WEEKEND STORM CHANCES: locally, higher chances currently focused
on Sunday night into Monday morning.

Various ripples in the upper level flow are progged to move mostly
west-east across the upper mississippi river valley this weekend.
Generally, the favored tracks are across northern parts of the
region. However, a west-east running sfc warm front will also be in
play, likely wavering somewhere across central MN/central WI. In
addition, where convection fires and then moves...leaving residual
outflow boundaries and then an MCV...will work to modify the
environment - and where later convection will be more likely. Ample
uncertainties and may not become relatively "clear" until 12 hours
out.

That said, there has been reasonable consensus for a higher storm
threat Sunday night into Monday morning locally. Shortwave trough
and low level jet interaction could/would spark convection over
central MN, moving east/southeast. How far southward these chances
would extend is unclear as a sizable portion of the guidance holds
the shower/storm threat north of I-94. However, there is a subset of
the models/ensembles that slide the MCS southeast across the bulk of
the forecast area. Too much uncertainty to lean the forecast one way
or the other and will hold with the model blend. Ample instability a
loft but wind shear limited, especially with low level inversion in
place. Depending on the timing, some stronger storm risk. Warm cloud
depths and increasing sfc PWs would support locally heavy rain.


> HEAT SUNDAY-MONDAY: heat indices of 100+ degrees possible/likely.

Upper level ridge building/increasing heights as we move through the
weekend, with heat and humidity pooling northward across the upper
mississippi river valley. A couple "steamy" days are promised Sun-
Mon via the variety of models. Not overly anomalous though - pushing
1+ for 850 mb temps in the NAEFS and EC while EFIs "only" at 0.5 to
0.6. The saying "it`s not the heat, it`s the humidity" is very
applicable here. While highs are currently forecast to top out in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, sfc Tds are expected to climb into the
lower to mid 70s - resulting in heat indices for Sun/Mon of 100+
degrees. Heat advisories are possible/probable for portions of the
forecast area in this time frame - favored along/south of I-90.

One caveat to the heat - movement/placement of the any mcs and their
resulting mcv (for later afternoon storm trigger). Pcpn/related
clouds obvious impediments to high heat. With uncertainties on where
the storm complexes would develop/move - will hold with the current
temp outlay - but some adjustments may be needed


> NEXT WEEK: cooling down for a few days. Spotty rain chances.

GEFS and EPS are both in favor of amplifying an upper level ridge
over the west coast while a trough/closed 500 mb digs across
southeastern Canada. All WPC clusters support this. This would place
the upper mississippi river valley under a cooler, northwest flow. A
few perturbations/convectively enhanced shortwaves could bring
periodic shower/storm chances - although timing/location
disagreements of these small scale features in the long range
guidance keeps predictability low.

After the hot start to the new week, temps look to drop back below
the seasonable normals. Over 75% of the GEFS and EPS members top
highs out in the 70s for the mid/latter part of the work week.

Some suggestion that the upper level pattern will be changing by the
following weekend, with that west coast ridge tracking over the
plains state. A return to summery heat would follow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Diurnal cumulus has developed this afternoon around 2-4kft and will
continue through the evening, resulting MVFR ceilings where cumulus
is lowest and most abundant (primarily central Wisconsin). Early
Saturday morning, showers and thunderstorms move northeastward from
the central Great Plains, but should largely stay south and east of
a line from CCY to DLL providing just a glancing blow to our area.
Cloud coverage increases overnight associated with these
showers/storms, bringing the potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings to
areas along and south of I-90 including the TAF sites.

&&


.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rieck
AVIATION...Falkinham
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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