Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

123
FXUS63 KARX 021947
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
147 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries are expected in northeast Iowa and parts of
  southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin tonight. Potential
  for flurries Wednesday but very low (<20%) chance to get
  something heavier than that.

- Potential for more notable precipitation Thursday into Friday morning
  to our northeast but overall chances in our area remain low
  (20-30%), mainly east of the Mississippi.

- Warmer than freezing highs probable (50-90%) for Thursday
  before a cooler but uncertain weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Flurries and light snow tonight, perhaps again Wednesday

16z WV satellite snows a wave over OH, weak trough over MT/ND, and
an upper low over western Ontario with northwesterly flow aloft over
the CWA. At the surface, northwesterly winds are in place in the
wake of a cold front with a high centered in Lake Winnipeg. Light
snow is ongoing in the eastern Dakotas ahead of the weak trough. A
bit of stratus lingered this morning and, with this deck within the
DGZ, a few flurries were reported.

This evening into tonight, weak lift looks to occur as the MT/ND
trough slides over IA. Progged soundings suggest occasional
saturation within the DGZ will occur across the southwestern half of
the forecast area but, with a notable dry layer between the DGZ and
the ground centered around 800mb, will be tough to get snow to reach
the surface. Have therefore shifted the forecast from light snow
mentions with the potential for accumulation to mentions of
flurries. Late Monday night into early Tuesday, saturation in the
DGZ is lost while conditions close to the top of the boundary layer
are near or at saturation. The good news is that HRRR depicts this
region as being cold enough for ice to be produced there as well.
Will nonetheless need to keep an eye on it as, should this be 1-2 C
warmer, a bit of freezing drizzle could recur.

Departure of the weak trough Tuesday morning should lead to dry
conditions through much of the column. Thus, when another
disturbance arrives Tuesday afternoon, do not expect any precip at
all as it moves through.

Wednesday morning, wave dives south out of far western Ontario.
Steep low level laps rates look to develop following the associated
frontal passage and, with the top of the boundary layer near
saturation and below -10C, could get some additional flurries out of
this but the chance for something measurable is very low (<20% per
02.00z LREF).

Notable precip likely remains to our northeast Thursday into Friday

Thursday into Friday, upper low moves over Ontario while another,
much weaker disturbance ejects southeast over the CWA. These
features appear to phase suboptimally and, in any case, best forcing
for ascent remains to our northeast. However, may still get enough
moisture and lift for at least some precip Thursday into Friday
morning, with both 02.00z LREF and 02.13z NBM having around a 20-40%
chance, both focused east of the Mississippi.

As for precip type, warm advection ahead of the front Thursday
briefly brings >0C temperatures at 850mb over the CWA, introducing
the possibility for precip other than snow. 02.00z LREF joint
probabilities for warm 850mb temperatures, below freezing surface
temperatures, and precip being co-located are only around 10%, driven
almost entirely by the CMC ensemble. Additionally, 02.12z GFS
soundings suggest the absence of a strong warm nose that would lead
to problems. Therefore, think that freezing rain is very unlikely
(<10%) and, with best chance for precip residing after the cold
front moves through, snow would be the favored type over rain.

Above freezing Thursday, uncertain temps this weekend

Aforementioned warm advection Thursday likely (50-90%) brings
surface temperatures above freezing during the afternoon, the first
time in 2-3 weeks for most locations with an early high temperature
above freezing also possible (35-50%) for Friday. Following this,
when interquartile ranges are under 5 degrees, uncertainty increases
markedly for the weekend with ranges for both lows and highs
exceeding 10 degrees as guidance disagrees on the strength of the
surface high that develops in the wake of the Ontario upper low and
the potential for a shortwave 850mb ridge to nose over the region
Saturday into Sunday. Thus, while our forecast highs are mainly in
the 20s and 30s for the weekend with lows in the single digits and
teens, confidence in these values is very low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A FEW-BKN deck of stratocumulus is present at issuance south of
a CCY-CMY line. While portions of this deck have increased in
coverage over the past hour, expect it to remain just southeast
of LSE or, if a ceiling does occur, it should be brief. Moving
ahead to tonight, a few flurries may (30%) occur southwest of a
RGK-LNR line but reductions in visibility to under 6 miles are
not expected. MVFR stratus may develop as well after 06z but
confidence in sky cover is too low to include several hours of
MVFR near the end of this period with this update.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Ferguson