Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS63 KARX 072024
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
324 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue for today with highs in the upper 70s
  to mid 80s.

- Temperatures warm up into the mid 80s to low 90s into early
  next week.

- Strong to severe storm chances increase for Wednesday, lower
  confidence lingering through Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Today-Monday: Scattered Showers and Storms

An axis of theta-e sitting over southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa,
and far southwest Wisconsin will shift off to the north through the
afternoon. MUCAPE values increase to 1500 to 2500 J/kg during the
afternoon. With good moisture transport into the region, PWATs
between 1.5" to 2.0", and slow storm motions could case heavy rain
to sit over some locations for a prolonged period of time. The 12Z
HREF 90th percentile highlights portions of southeast Minnesota and
northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin with patches of 1.5 to 3"
possible through the evening. This boundary will weaken during the
early overnight period resulting in these showers and storms
dissipating. Moisture advection increases tonight and continues
through Monday afternoon with similar PWAT values as today resulting
in multiple rounds of showers and storms into the area. With weak
lapse rates and weak shear aloft combining with MUCAPE values
between 1000 and 1500 J/kg, these storms will be subsevere with
localized flooding being the main threat with any storms that train
over the same area.

Warming Into Midweek:

While recent NBM runs have tempered local midweek temperatures a
couple of degrees, building upper/mid level heights excite low
level return flow into Tuesday, keeping confidence for near
triple digit apparent heat indices for Wednesday. Strong low
level moisture advection ahead a longer wave trough progressing
east through the Central to Northern Plains threatens the 70
degree isodrosotherm through the Upper Mississippi River
Valley, feeling quite muggy especially on Tuesday.

Severe Weather Chances Wednesday:

A more northerly lifting solution to the mid level longer wave
trough and accompanying lobe of positive vorticity advection in
most recent long term deterministic, ensemble, and AI
counterpart models continues to hinder higher local confidence
in widespread severe weather for Wednesday. Resultant solutions
to the main area of low pressure lift well north of the forecast
area into southern Canada, stringing lower confidence for
cyclogenesis along the subsequent accompanying triple point
somewhere from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

Similar to previous forecasts, enhanced low level moisture
transport supports a /very/ unstable airmass with LREF soundings
suggesting 3000 J/kg+ of SBCAPE. Accompanying shear remains
splotchy, heightened along potential subsequent west to east
progressing linear storm mode through central Minnesota during
the afternoon, initiating just upstream of the local forecast
area. LREF sounding plumes and accompanying hodographs do
suggest stunted, surface-based, clockwise turning hodographs
capable of all hazard types should they reach the local forecast
area dependent on formation strength sustenance given the
question surrounding available shear. Furthermore, diurnal
timing could cause storms to reach the local forecast area into
the nighttime hours, limiting access to lower level instability.

Severe Weather Chances Thursday:

Eastern extent of storms Wednesday and Wednesday night will
determine location of strong to severe storms through Thursday
as cyclogenesis is likely along the baroclinic boundary due to
resurgence of positive mid level vorticity advection from the
synoptic extratropical cyclone. Should a more western solution
be realized Wednesday, local severe chances could increase for
Thursday. Unlike Wednesday, additional collocation of increased
shear raises concern for severity while sharp cutoff of frontal
boundary limits widespread instability.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Scattered showers and storms currently over portions of
southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and far southwest
Wisconsin will gradually shift northward through the afternoon.
The expectation with these storms is that they will slowly
dissipate as we get further into the afternoon. Once this band
leaves, more scattered showers and storms are expected over much
of the region through the overnight and the morning hours. While
VFR conditions are expected until the evening, MVFR CIGS move in
later this evening and continue through the overnight. Any
location that experiences heavier rain could also see reduced
visibilities. Winds are generally out of the southeast through
the TAF period at 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava/JAR
AVIATION...Cecava