Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS63 KARX 302353
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
653 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some light icing continues in Clark and Taylor counties
  through early this evening. Due to this, an Ice Storm Warning
  in Taylor County and Winter Weather Advisory in Clark County
  continue through 7 PM tonight.

- Accumulating snow possible north of Interstate 94 from late
  Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

- There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms from
  Tuesday afternoon and night south of Interstate 90.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Late This Afternoon and Tonight

With temperatures in the lower 30s and dew points around 30,
light freezing rain will continue in Clark and Taylor counties.
Up to a tenth of an inch of additional icing may occur in Taylor
County and light glaze in Clark County. Due to this, kept the
Ice Storm Warning in Taylor County and Winter Weather Advisory
in Clark County through 7 PM tonight.

The surface low will track across far southern Wisconsin late
this afternoon and northern Lower Michigan and into Ontario
tonight. As this occurs, a deformation band of precipitation
will move east across the area. This band has ice aloft, so as
temperatures cool aloft, the rain will transition to snow. The
rain/snow line is currently near Interstate 35 and it will move
into southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa late this afternoon
and across the remainder of the area this evening. The latest
HREF continues to have generally up to 1 inch south of
Interstate 90 and generally 1 to 2 inches north of this
Interstate. There could potentially be isolated totals up to 3
inches (up to a 10% probability) north of Interstate 94.

With there still being low level moisture up to 800 mb and a
loss of ice on the back edge of this deformation band, there
could be a period of freezing drizzle, but confidence (less than
20%) remains low that this could take place.

Tuesday into Wednesday Night

The 30/12z models remain in good agreement that a shortwave
trough will eject out of the Central Plains. Like the past
couple of days, there is still some uncertainty on whether this
surface low will move northeast through the Upper Mississippi
River Valley or more east into the Mid Mississippi River Valley.
The GEFS solutions remain further west than the ECMWF ECE.
Precipitation continues to look like it will move into our
western areas on Tuesday morning and across the remainder of the
area on Tuesday afternoon. It continues to look like the
precipitation will be mainly rain south of Interstate 94 and a
wintry mix north of this Interstate. The 10th percentiles are
generally around 1 inch of snow. Meanwhile, the 90th
percentiles are in the 3 to 5 inch range for snow.

Further south, there is some uncertainty on how far north will
the warm sector will get. This is due to the surface low
occluding and where this might occur. If the area can get into
the warm sector, there will be ample instability (potentially up
to 1000 J/kg) and shear for the potential of severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk across our far
south and a marginal risk up to Interstate 90.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A band of moderate snow will continue to move across southeast
Minnesota and northeast Iowa this evening. This band is expected
to move into Wisconsin and not be as strong as it tracks
eastward. Quick reductions in visibilities, from MVFR to
IFR/LIFR, are expected within this band of snow. Other than this
band, some light rain/snow will continue ahead of this snow
band. IFR to LIFR CIGS will remain until after the snow band
exits. All precipitation is expected to leave the area by
midnight. CIGS will increase a couple hours after the snow ends
and eventually get up to around 15kft by Monday morning.
Northwest winds continue through the TAF period with some gusts
this evening approaching 25 mph.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Cecava