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Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Rochester MN
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Rochester MN
Issued by: National Weather Service La Crosse |
| Updated: 11:44 pm CDT Jun 25, 2025 |
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Overnight
Chance
Showers and
Patchy Fog
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Thursday
Chance
T-storms and
Patchy Fog
then T-storms
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Thursday
Night
Showers
Likely
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Friday
Mostly Cloudy
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Friday
Night
Mostly Clear
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Saturday
Mostly Sunny
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
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Saturday
Night
Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
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Sunday
Chance
T-storms then
T-storms
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Sunday
Night
Chance
T-storms
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| Lo 67 °F |
Hi 78 °F |
Lo 62 °F |
Hi 77 °F |
Lo 62 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 66 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4am. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 67. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming southeast. |
Thursday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. Patchy fog before 10am. High near 78. Southeast wind around 7 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. |
Thursday Night
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 62. North wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Friday
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Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Northwest wind around 6 mph. |
Friday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Light and variable wind. |
Saturday
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A slight chance of showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Saturday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 7 mph. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. High near 89. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. |
Sunday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. |
Monday
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A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 63. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 82. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 62. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. |
Wednesday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 81. West wind 3 to 6 mph. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Rochester MN.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
024
FXUS63 KARX 260533
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe weather (damaging winds and possibly a few tornadoes)
possible this afternoon evening, and maybe another round
overnight.
- Heavy rain expected through tonight. Rainfall totals of 1-3
inches are expected with localized totals of 3-5 inches. Due
to this a Flood Watch has been issued through 7 AM Thursday.
- River flood watches has been issued for several rivers and
creeks in the area. Minor to moderate flooding is expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
This afternoon and early evening
Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon is starting to show
some breaks in the clouds south of Interstate 90. As the afternoon
progresses, a differential heating area is expected to develop south
of Interstate 90 across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.
This will allow surface-based CAPES to climb into the 1-3K J/kg
range. The effective shear along the Interstate 90 corridor is
expected to climb to around 40 knots. This could potentially
result in some supercells. However, the most likely storm
structure will be organized/bowing clusters of storms capable of
damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. We have
been in coordination with the Storm Prediction Center about
extending the slight risk further east into southwest and
central Wisconsin.
With precipitable water values around 2.25 inches, warm-cloud depths
over 4 km, and moderate to strong 850 mb moisture advection into the
region through tonight, the showers and storms will be highly
efficient rain producers. The 25.12z HREF continues to suggest that
the area will see 1 to 3 inches of rain through tonight and the
localized probability-matched mean suggest the potential for 3 to 5
inches. Due to this, a Flood Watch for the risk of flash flooding
has been issued for this afternoon and tonight.
Late tonight and Thursday
A mesoscale complex will move out of Nebraska this evening and move
through areas south of Interstate 94 late tonight. This could
potentially result in another area of strong winds moving east
through the area. This will result in pushing a front south into
central Iowa and northern Illinois. This front will then move back
north as a warm front on Thursday. Overall, the best 850 mb moisture
transport is east of the area. As a result, there may be a brief
threat of damaging winds and heavy rain during the afternoon and by
early evening this threat should be east of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Rain appears to be done for the night, but MVFR to IFR ceilings
will linger across much of the region into Thursday morning,
generally 0.5-2kft. Thinking mist/fog development and lower
visibilities of 3-5SM are probable into the morning hours given
pockets of clearing cloud cover south of I-94, with some sites
already reporting lower visibilities. Winds will be somewhat
variable across the region this evening, but should remain 10KT
or less. Thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday
afternoon, generally after 17Z. Showers may continue for a few
hours after thunderstorms move through but not confident enough
to add into the TAFs at this time.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
La Crosse
Daily rainfall records
June 25 - 1.65 inches in 2010
June 26 - 2.77 inches in 2021
June rainfall record is 4.50 inches on June 18, 2011
Rochester
Daily rainfall records
June 25 - 4.18 inches in 1913 (3rd highest for JUne)
June 26 - 2.00 inches in 1941
June rainfall record is 4.90 inches on June 28, 2019
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Falkinham
CLIMATE...Boyne
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